CRiskCo

What This Report Is

This report is an independent, data-driven view of how Mexican businesses actually performed from 2022 to 2025, based on real commercial activity. Using aggregated SAT CFDI transaction data, we analyze how business sales, costs, profitability, concentration, and compliance exposure evolved across thousands of companies. The focus is on what changed in 2025, how it compares to prior years, and where hidden risks and opportunities are emerging beneath headline growth.

2025 Market Statements

1
Sales accelerated in 2025. Business sales increased +10.9% in 2025 Jan-Oct versus 2024 Jan-Oct.
2
Profitability jumped. Operating profit rose +40.3%, and operating margin expanded +5.7pp (from 21.6% to 27.3%).
3
Costs cooled. Operating spend rose only +2.8%, far below sales growth.
4
Growth was both volume and value. Transactions increased +5.7% and average transaction size increased +4.9%.
5
Concentration remains a structural fragility. 24.9% of businesses show high customer concentration (HHI > 0.50) and 44.4% became more concentrated year over year.
6
Compliance exposure improved materially. Blacklist-flagged activity declined -59.6% YoY (Jan-Oct). Remaining exposure is still meaningful and operationally relevant for customers and supplier's side.

Executive Summary

Mexico's business activity accelerated in 2025. In our panel of the same monitored businesses, sales growth strengthened to +10.9% in 2025 Jan-Oct versus 2024 Jan-Oct, and the quality of that growth improved: average deal size turned positive (+4.9%) while transaction counts grew (+5.7%). More important, profitability expanded sharply. Operating spend increased only +2.8%, producing operating profit growth of +40.3% and a +5.7pp step-up in operating margin. In plain terms, businesses grew sales faster than costs, rebuilding a cushion against shocks. At the same time, risk did not disappear. Commercial networks became more fragile for a meaningful slice of companies. In our concentration analysis, 44.4% of businesses increased customer concentration year-over-year, and 42.0% reduced the number of active customers. That is a strong signal that even in a growing year, dependence on fewer counterparties is rising for many. Finally, compliance risk did not disappear, but it clearly improved on the customer side. In 2025, blacklist-flagged counterparties appeared far less frequently than in 2024: flagged transactions declined -59.6% YoY, and repeat-exposure intensity fell by roughly -29%. At the same time, the risk is not gone, it is shifting. Our data suggests blacklist exposure is moving toward the supplier side of the economy, with flagged entities showing up less often as customers and more often as suppliers, which changes how compliance teams should prioritize monitoring. We hope this report proves practical across the organization, from risk and compliance to finance, credit, treasury, procurement, and commercial leadership. Thank you to our clients and partners who helped CRiskCo scale in 2025, growing platform usage by more than 300%. If you want to apply these signals to your underwriting, monitoring, procurement, or compliance workflows, we would be glad to show how teams are using CRiskCo in practice. For a great 2026, Erez and the entire CRiskCo team.

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Chapter 1: Market Performance (2022–2025)

Highlights

•2025 moved into a new regime: sales growth accelerated while cost growth cooled, creating a step-change in profitability.
•2024 was balanced: sales and spend grew at almost identical rates, leaving margins essentially unchanged.
•2023 showed cost pressure: spend grew faster than sales, compressing margins.

Year-over-Year Growth (%)

Sales
Op. Spend
Op. Profit

Operating Margin (%)

* 2025 Jan–Oct

Table 1. Core business performance
Period	Sales (MXN)	Op. Spend (MXN)	Op. Profit (MXN)	Op. Margin	Transactions	Avg Tx Size
2022 (full year)	2.10T	1.61T	0.48T	23.0%	45.8M	45,833
2023 (full year)	2.30T	1.81T	0.49T	21.3%	47.3M	48,654
2024 (full year)	2.50T	1.97T	0.53T	21.3%	52.3M	47,749
2024 (Jan-Oct)	2.01T	1.58T	0.43T	21.6%	43.2M	46,574
2025 (Jan-Oct)	2.23T	1.62T	0.61T	27.3%	45.7M	48,855

T = trillions MXN; M = millions of transactions.

Table 2. Year-over-year change
Comparison	Sales	Op. Spend	Op. Profit	Margin Δ	Transactions	Avg Tx Size
2023 vs 2022	+9.8%	+12.3%	+1.5%	-1.8pp	+3.5%	+6.2%
2024 vs 2023	+8.4%	+8.4%	+8.4%	+0.0pp	+10.4%	-1.9%
2025 vs 2024	+10.9%	+2.8%	+40.3%	+5.7pp	+5.7%	+4.9%

Market Interpretation

2025 is not just "more activity." It is a higher-quality combination of stronger sales growth and a slower cost curve. That usually supports healthier cash generation, fewer stress events, and better resilience to shocks. It also changes where teams should focus: as broad-based default pressure eases, operational risk, concentration risk, and compliance exposure become more important differentiators.

Chapter 2: 2025 Momentum and Seasonality (Jan–Oct)

Highlights

•Sales grew in every month of 2025 Jan-Oct versus the same month in 2024.
•Margins improved in 9 out of 10 months, showing that profitability expansion was not limited to one quarter.
•August was the softest sales growth month (+3.8% YoY), yet margin still improved (+3.7pp), consistent with cost discipline.

Average monthly sales growth (Jan-Oct): ~11.0%. Average monthly spend growth (Jan-Oct): ~2.5%. Average monthly margin expansion: ~+5.9pp.

Market Interpretation

When growth and margin expansion persist across most months, the signal is stronger. It suggests a broad improvement in commercial conditions rather than a one-time spike.

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Chapter 3: Performance by Company Size

Global and Large businesses delivered efficient growth. Both cohorts grew sales around +10% while margins expanded. Small businesses rebounded sharply from a low base and improved profitability materially, although they remain structurally more volatile. Mid Size grew fast, but margins compressed sharply. This is the clearest segment-level signal that "headline growth" can hide pressure.

Size Cohort: Sales YoY vs Margin Change (pp)

Sales YoY %
Margin Δ (pp)

Table 3. Size cohort performance: 2025 vs 2024
Size Cohort	Sales YoY	Spend YoY	Margin 2024	Margin 2025	Margin Δ
Global	+9.9%	+0.0%	22.5%	29.5%	+7.0pp
Large	+10.8%	+7.1%	19.7%	22.4%	+2.7pp
Mid Size	+23.9%	+49.7%	17.2%	-0.1%	-17.3pp
Small	+159.9%	+102.2%	-44.5%	-12.4%	+32.1pp

Market Interpretation

The size split suggests two simultaneous stories. The top of the market (Global, Large) is improving strongly and efficiently. The small end is rebounding and improving margins, but remains structurally more volatile. The Mid Size cohort shows rapid sales growth paired with faster cost growth and margin compression toward break-even, a pattern that deserves tighter monitoring in 2026.

Chapter 4: Concentration Risk (HHI) and Customer-Base Contraction

Highlights

•High concentration remains common: 24.9% of businesses have HHI > 0.50 (high dependence on a few customers).
•Extreme concentration remains material: 13.1% have HHI > 0.75.
•The risk is dynamic: 44.4% of businesses became more concentrated year over year.
•Customer bases are shrinking for many: 42.0% reduced their number of active customers.

Concentration Risk: 2024 vs 2025 (%)

2024
2025

Table 4. HHI distribution (Aug–Oct average)
Metric	2024	2025
Share with HHI > 0.50	25.6%	24.9%
Share with HHI > 0.75	13.6%	13.1%
Share where HHI increased YoY	n/a	44.4%

Table 5. Customer-base change (count of active customers)
Outcome	Share of Businesses
Reduced customers	42.0%
Increased customers	35.2%
No significant change	22.7%

Market Interpretation

Even in a stronger economy, concentration can quietly increase. A business can grow while becoming more fragile if it depends on fewer customers. This is one of the clearest "hidden risk" patterns for credit, procurement, and treasury teams.

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Chapter 5: Compliance Signals and Blacklist Exposure

Highlights

•Blacklist exposure declined sharply: total flagged transactions fell -59.6% in 2025 versus 2024.
•Repeat exposure intensity decreased: flagged transactions per unique flagged entity fell by about -29%.
•Supplier-side exposure remains as material as customer-side: in 2025 Jan-Oct, supplier-side flagged transactions were slightly higher than customer-side.

Compliance Risk refers to the exposure of a business to regulatory, legal, and operational consequences arising from its commercial relationships with counterparties flagged under official blacklists.

Table 6. Total blacklist exposure (customers + suppliers)
Period	Flagged Tx	Avg/Month	Unique Entities/Month	Repeat Intensity
2024 (Jan-Oct)	36,213	3,621	261	13.9
2025 (Jan-Oct)	14,648	1,465	144	9.9

Table 7. Split view: customer vs supplier (Jan-Oct)
Side	2024 Flagged Tx	2025 Flagged Tx	2025 vs 2024
Customer side	11,087	6,760	-39.0%
Supplier side	25,126	7,888	-68.6%

Market Interpretation

The compliance signal improved materially, but it is not gone. Even at lower levels, the remaining exposure is meaningful for institutions and enterprises. The split view also reinforces a practical point: compliance monitoring should cover both who you onboard as customers and who you pay as suppliers.

Network Risk: Blacklist exposure is rarely isolated to a single entity. Risk propagates through commercial networks, meaning exposure can originate from customers, suppliers, or their counterparties. Screening only the applicant misses second-order compliance and operational risk embedded in the broader network.

Chapter 6: CRiskCo Recommendations for 2026

The 2026 Thesis: 2026 will reward organizations that can detect change early and act decisively. Those that combine real-time monitoring with clear escalation procedures will be better positioned to manage counterparty risk, prevent compliance pitfalls, and protect profitability.

Cross-Functional Recommendations:

Move from snapshots to continuous monitoring for customers and suppliers.

Treat concentration as a first-class risk, not a footnote. Track HHI and customer count trends, not just PD.

Separate "growth" from "quality growth." Monitor sales vs spend trajectories to catch margin compression early.

Instrument payables and procurement with the same discipline as onboarding and underwriting.

Build or Enforce a KYS Program (Know Your Supplier):

Implement KYS as a formal control for procurement and payables, with continuous screening of suppliers and their owners/related parties. Our blacklist analysis shows that exposure can sit on the supplier side, not only the customer side.

Minimum KYS standard:

Screen every supplier at onboarding against blacklists and sanctions lists.

Re-screen all active suppliers on a fixed cadence (yearly minimum; monthly for high-risk).

Trigger immediate re-screening after any meaningful change signal.

Make Blacklist Monitoring a Continuous Control:

Move from one-time checks to continuous monitoring for both customers and suppliers.

Track Concentration Risk as a First-Class Metric:

Every monitored counterparty should have concentration tracked over time.

High concentration: HHI > 0.50

Extreme concentration: HHI > 0.75

Deterioration flag: YoY HHI increase plus customer count declining

Separate "Growth" from "Quality Growth" Using a Margin Lens:

In 2026, treat margin trajectory as an early-warning signal, not a retrospective metric.

Watch: sales growing but operating spend growing faster for 2+ consecutive months.

Escalate: operating margin drops by 3.0pp+ versus prior-year comparable period.

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Chapter 7: Data Confidence, Methodology, and Limitations

Data Sources and Transformation:

1. Primary signal source: SAT CFDI commercial activity monitored through CRiskCo, covering over 20,000 monitored businesses.

2. Activity is converted into three business-facing proxies: sales, operating spend, and operating profit.

3. A Core Panel of approximately 12,000 businesses is constructed to enable consistent comparisons across 2022–2025.

Definitions and Calculation Notes:

1. Sales (proxy): total monitored SAT CFDI commercial activity associated with outgoing transactions.

2. Operating spend (proxy): total monitored SAT CFDI commercial activity associated with incoming transactions (expenses).

3. Operating profit (proxy): sales minus operating spend.

4. Operating margin (proxy): operating profit divided by sales, expressed as a percentage.

5. Transactions (tx): number of monitored CFDI documents, each counted once.

6. Average transaction size: total sales divided by total transaction count.

7. Year-over-year (YoY) change: (Value_current / Value_prior) − 1. For 2025, comparisons use Jan–Oct 2025 vs Jan–Oct 2024.

8. HHI (Herfindahl–Hirschman Index): measures customer concentration. HHI ranges from 0 to 1, where 1.0 indicates single-customer dependency. Thresholds: High > 0.50, Extreme > 0.75.

9. Active customer: a customer with non-zero sales activity during the period.

10. Reduced customers: a business whose number of active customers declined.

11. Blacklist-flagged transaction: a monitored transaction where at least one counterparty matches a blacklist record.

12. Unique flagged entity: a distinct counterparty identifier matched to a blacklist.

13. Repeat exposure intensity: flagged transactions divided by unique flagged entities.

14. Customer-side vs supplier-side exposure: based on whether the flagged counterparty appears on the sales or spend side.

15. Cohort sizing rule: businesses grouped by trailing 12-month sales as of January 2024: Small (< 5M MXN), Mid Size (5M–6.7M), Large (6.7M–180M), Global (> 180M).

How to Cite This Report:

"CRiskCo Mexico Economic Review 2025 — Analysis of Mexican business activity and compliance exposure based on real SAT CFDI commercial activity."

About CRiskCo

CRiskCo is a Mexico-focused Credit Intelligence company that helps financial institutions, enterprises, and professional services firms make better decisions using real economic activity data. We transform SAT CFDI commercial data into clear, actionable intelligence across credit, risk, compliance, finance, treasury, procurement, and market research.

Legal Disclaimer

This report and the CRiskCo services described herein are provided for informational and analytical purposes only and do not constitute legal, regulatory, investment, credit, or accounting advice; users remain solely responsible for decisions made based on this information.

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